NFL Wins Pool Update
Last updated November 30, 2021
Standings
| Rank | Team | Wins | Remaining Games | Win % | Win % Rank | Projected Wins (FPI) | Projected Rank (FPI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Creaser | 22 | 15 | 66.7% | 1 | 32.9 | 1 |
| 1 | Dan Ellenberger | 22 | 14 | 64.7% | 2 | 32.8 | 2 |
| 3 | Gavin Gray | 20 | 13 | 57.1% | 3 | 28.5 | 3 |
| 4 | Nick Boucher | 18 | 14 | 52.9% | 5 | 26.4 | 5 |
| 4 | Andrew Batchelor | 18 | 15 | 54.5% | 4 | 26.4 | 5 |
| 4 | Matt Hogel | 18 | 14 | 52.9% | 5 | 26.7 | 4 |
| 7 | Mike Thorne | 17 | 15 | 51.5% | 7 | 26.3 | 7 |
| 8 | Luke Phelan | 16 | 13 | 45.7% | 8 | 24.1 | 8 |
| 9 | Karl Loiseau | 14 | 14 | 41.2% | 9 | 22.1 | 9 |
| 10 | Andrew Moeller | 12 | 15 | 36.4% | 10 | 19.6 | 10 |
- Projected wins taken from ESPN FPI projections.
Expanded Standings
| Team | Wins |
Projected Wins |
Next Opponent |
Win Probability in Next Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Ellenberger | ||||
| Arizona Cardinals | 9 | 13.2 | @CHI | 0.76 |
| Tennessee Titans | 8 | 11.2 | BYE | |
| Minnesota Vikings | 5 | 8.4 | @DET | 0.73 |
| Steve Creaser | ||||
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8 | 12.5 | @ATL | 0.83 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 7 | 9.9 | LAC | 0.61 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 7 | 10.5 | @NO | 0.66 |
| Gavin Gray | ||||
| New England Patriots | 8 | 10.9 | @BUF | 0.41 |
| Cleveland Browns | 6 | 8.6 | BYE | |
| Denver Broncos | 6 | 9.0 | @KC | 0.19 |
| Andrew Batchelor | ||||
| Baltimore Ravens | 8 | 11.2 | @PIT | 0.64 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 5 | 6.9 | TB | 0.17 |
| New Orleans Saints | 5 | 8.3 | DAL | 0.34 |
| Matt Hogel | ||||
| Los Angeles Rams | 7 | 10.5 | JAX | 0.87 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 6 | 9.5 | @SEA | 0.61 |
| Carolina Panthers | 5 | 6.7 | BYE | |
| Nick Boucher | ||||
| Green Bay Packers | 9 | 12.4 | BYE | |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 6 | 9.5 | @CIN | 0.39 |
| New York Jets | 3 | 4.5 | PHI | 0.28 |
| Mike Thorne | ||||
| Buffalo Bills | 7 | 11.2 | NE | 0.59 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 6 | 8.6 | WAS | 0.59 |
| New York Giants | 4 | 6.5 | @MIA | 0.39 |
| Luke Phelan | ||||
| Indianapolis Colts | 6 | 8.9 | @HOU | 0.79 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 5 | 7.8 | @NYJ | 0.72 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 5 | 7.4 | BAL | 0.36 |
| Karl Loiseau | ||||
| Kansas City Chiefs | 7 | 10.7 | DEN | 0.81 |
| Miami Dolphins | 5 | 7.5 | NYG | 0.61 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 2 | 3.9 | @RAM | 0.13 |
| Andrew Moeller | ||||
| Washington | 5 | 7.4 | @LVR | 0.41 |
| Chicago Bears | 4 | 5.9 | ARI | 0.24 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 3 | 6.3 | SF | 0.39 |
- Win probability calculated from consensus vegas point spreads
Weekly Head-to-Heads
Leverage measured by:* Circles to the top right are games between people closest to first place
* Bigger circles indicate games that are more likely to be closely contested
Draft Analysis
| Team | Wins |
Draft Spot |
Expected Wins |
Performance vs. Expectation |
Better Choices |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Creaser | |||||
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8 | 1 | 9 | -1 | 2 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 7 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 7 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Dan Ellenberger | |||||
| Tennessee Titans | 8 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 9 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 0 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 5 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 2 |
| Gavin Gray | |||||
| Cleveland Browns | 6 | 10 | 7 | -1 | 3 |
| New England Patriots | 8 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| Denver Broncos | 6 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| Nick Boucher | |||||
| Green Bay Packers | 9 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 6 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 3 |
| New York Jets | 3 | 30 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Andrew Batchelor | |||||
| Baltimore Ravens | 8 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| New Orleans Saints | 5 | 15 | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 5 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Matt Hogel | |||||
| Los Angeles Rams | 7 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 3 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 6 | 11 | 7 | -1 | 4 |
| Carolina Panthers | 5 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Mike Thorne | |||||
| Buffalo Bills | 7 | 4 | 8 | -1 | 4 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 6 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 2 |
| New York Giants | 4 | 25 | 5 | -1 | 3 |
| Luke Phelan | |||||
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 5 | 9 | 7 | -2 | 9 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 6 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 3 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 5 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 2 |
| Karl Loiseau | |||||
| Kansas City Chiefs | 7 | 2 | 9 | -2 | 5 |
| Miami Dolphins | 5 | 16 | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 2 | 29 | 3 | -1 | 1 |
| Andrew Moeller | |||||
| Seattle Seahawks | 3 | 6 | 8 | -5 | 20 |
| Washington | 5 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| Chicago Bears | 4 | 22 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
Draft Results
